← How it works
Causal Graphs (DAGs)
Each Depository 360 module uses an explicit causal structure. These directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) show which factors influence which outcomes — and where we apply intervention logic.
product fit
Strategic alignment, technical fit, and board readiness influence implementation success. We apply causal adjustment to vendor ROI claims based on your institution's confounding factors.
Priority MatchMember RelevanceTimingBoard ReadinessCore IntegrationStrategic AlignmentTechnical FitImplementation SuccessVendor Claimed ROIAdjusted ROI
Edges (from → to)
- priority_match → strategic_alignment
- member_relevance → strategic_alignment
- timing → strategic_alignment
- board_readiness → strategic_alignment
- core_integration → technical_fit
- strategic_alignment → implementation_success
- technical_fit → implementation_success
- vendor_claimed_roi [confounding adjustment] → adjusted_roi
investment
Fit, ROI trajectory, and risk combine into a venture signal. We model how these factors affect investment success and exit potential.
Product FitROI TrajectoryRisk PostureVC DemandExit PotentialRound RiskInvestment Outcome
Edges (from → to)
- fit_score → vc_demand
- roi_trajectory → vc_demand
- roi_trajectory → exit_potential
- risk_posture → round_risk
- risk_posture → vc_demand
- vc_demand → investment_outcome
- exit_potential → investment_outcome
- round_risk → investment_outcome
ma
Scale, cost synergy, and revenue synergy drive deal value. We model what happens to efficiency and ROE if we intervene on merge, headcount, or branch consolidation.
Merge (do)Headcount ReductionBranch ConsolidationScale EconomiesCost SynergyRevenue SynergyEfficiency RatioROENPV
Edges (from → to)
- merge → headcount_reduction
- merge → branch_consolidation
- merge → scale_economies
- headcount_reduction → cost_synergy
- branch_consolidation → cost_synergy
- scale_economies → efficiency_ratio
- cost_synergy → efficiency_ratio
- revenue_synergy → roe
- efficiency_ratio → roe
- cost_synergy → npv
- revenue_synergy → npv
Honest framing
- M&A — Causal attribution + do-calculus (E[Efficiency | do(merge)]).
- Product Fit — MCDA (multi-criteria decision analysis) + causal ROI adjustment for confounding.
- Investment (CVC) — Composite heuristic with explicit decision structure; not formal causal inference.